knaves.ai

Bankroll simulator

If your edge is real, how does a season actually play out? This runs 600 simulated seasons of your staking plan and shows the honest range — including the chance of going backwards. It's a model, not a promise.

Starting bankroll £500

Your edge per bet 5%

Average odds (decimal) 4.0

Bets per week 5

Weeks to simulate 26

Kelly fraction (caution) 25%

Each grey line is one simulated season. The white line is the typical (median) path. A bet is only placed when there's value; stake is capped at 5% of bankroll.

What this is telling you

The simulator assumes your edge is real and steady — in reality you don't know your true edge until you've measured it over hundreds of bets (track your closing-line value first). Variance is brutal: a real +EV bettor can still spend months underwater. This is a tool for setting expectations and sizing sensibly, not a forecast of profit. Not financial advice.