The race card
| Horse | Speed | Win% | Days off | Wt carried | Decl. wt | Draw | Odds (dec.) |
|---|
Blend weights from the trained model — market · our model
(the crowd supplies most of the signal; the model is the thin edge on top).
Prediction & suggested stakes
| Horse | Our model | Market | Blend | Edge | ¼-Kelly stake | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit “Compute prediction”. | ||||||
Edge = blend probability × decimal odds − 1. We only flag a bet when edge ≥ 5%.
Stake is a fraction of bankroll, quarter-Kelly, capped at 5%.
Exotics (Monte Carlo, 20k sims)
Top exactas (1st–2nd)
Top trifectas (1st–2nd–3rd)
Win probabilities are turned into finishing-order probabilities by simulating the race
thousands of times (Plackett-Luce / Monte Carlo) — the same idea behind most prediction engines.