The engine: betting, graded, repeated
Knaves watches live gambling markets: sports, horses, weather, entertainment, prediction markets. It prices its own view of every game, takes simulated positions at real market prices, and lets real settlement decide who was right. So far it has graded 2,330 bets, and every one of them is on the record.
The engine is built to improve, not to impress. Its bets are scored against the closing line and against the dumbest possible baseline, so luck and hindsight cannot dress up as skill. When a strategy fails its own test, it folds, and the fold is permanent and public.
Better in five steps
One loop, run thousands of times. This is the whole engine.
Watch
Live odds, live books, live settlement. The engine sees what the market sees, timestamped.
♠Price
It forms its own probability for every outcome it plays, before the result exists.
♥Bet
Simulated money at real prices. The position is logged the moment it is taken.
♦Grade
Settlement decides. Every bet is scored against the close and a frozen baseline.
♣Learn
Calibration feedback goes back into the engine. Weak play gets folded, for good.
🃏What we do
One table, honest rules, and a long game.
Most ideas die on arrival, on purpose
Candidate strategies are culled hard before they ever touch a market. Only survivors get a seat at the table.
The rules freeze before the first bet
Sample size, calibration bar, kill condition: locked in writing before play starts. No moving the goalposts after.
Play is simulated, markets are real
Real prices, real settlement, zero real dollars. Everything the engine sees and does is recorded.
Verdicts land in public
Winning play earns a bigger sample. Losing play folds, and the fold stays on the table forever.